By Mat McDermid
January 4, 2012

A melting Arctic is prompting questions about climate change, geopolitics, and security among other topics, yet one question receiving more attention lately is steeped in nautical mythology: fabled Arctic shipping passages.

Typically relegated to the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with various passages in between (Suez and Panama Canals, Malacca Strait, etc.), the Arctic Ocean may present passages that could drastically reduce shipping distances -- some of which are already being traversed -- and by virtue, reduce time, cost, fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Could this be a silver lining to our warming planet? Savings in time and cost go without saying, but do the GHG emissions savings reaped by an open Arctic offset those emitted by the melting of the Arctic itself? While the direct emissions saved from Arctic shipping may be significant in the context of shipping emissions overall, the net emissions scenario of an open Arctic are unlikely to offset the warming Arctic -- not by a long shot -- and here's why:

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